93rd Oscars Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Should Win?

After an overextended awards season (lasting 145 days, to be exact!), there’s only one award show left, the 93rd Oscars. To celebrate the occasion, I would like to present my final predictions for the 93rd Oscars. In the subsequent article, I will go over what I think will win based on data from other awards shows this year, past Oscar wins, and also provide what I think should win, provided it’s not the film I predicted to win.

Actor in a leading role

Photo credit: David Lee
Image courtesy of Netflix

Nominees

  • Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
  • Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
  • Anthony Hopkins, The Father
  • Gary Oldman, Mank
  • Steven Yeun, Minari

Who should win: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Who will win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Actor in a supporting role

Image courtesy of Warner Bros.

Nominees

  • Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
  • Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
  • Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Who should win: Daniel Kaluuya
Who will win: Paul Raci

Actress in a leading role

Image courtesy of Focus Features

Nominees

  • Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
  • Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
  • Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
  • Frances McDormand, Nomadland
  • Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Who should win: Carey Mulligan
Who will win: Carey Mulligan

Actress in a supporting role

Image courtesy of A24

Nominees

  • Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
  • Olivia Colman, The Father
  • Amanda Seyfried, Mank
  • Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

Who should win: Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
Who will win:  Yuh-jung Youn, Minari

Animated feature film

Image courtesy of Walt Disney Studios

Nominees

  • Onward, Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae
  • Over the Moon, Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou
  • A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Richard Phelan, Will Becher, and Paul Kewley
  • Soul, Pete Docter and Dana Murray
  • Wolfwalkers, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants

Who should win: Wolfwalkers - Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants
Who will win: Soul - Pete Docter and Dana Murray

Cinematography

Image courtesy of Warner Bros.

Nominees

  • Judas and the Black Messiah - Sean Bobbitt
  • Mank - Erik Messerschmidt
  • News of the World - Dariusz Wolski
  • Nomadland - Joshua James Richards
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Phedon Papamichael

Who should win: Nomadland- Joshua James Richards
Who will win: Judas and the Black Messiah - Sean Bobbitt

Costume Design

Photo credit: David Lee
Image courtesy of Netflix

Nominees

  • Emma. - Alexandra Byrne
  • Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Ann Roth
  • Mank - Trish Summerville
  • Mulan - Bina Daigeler
  • Pinocchio - Massimo Cantini Parrini

Who should win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Ann Roth
Who will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Ann Roth

Directing

Image courtesy of Samuel Goldwyn Films

Nominees

  • Another Round - Thomas Vinterberg
  • Mank - David Fincher
  • Minari - Lee Isaac Chung
  • Nomadland - Chloé Zhao
  • Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell

Who should win: Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell
Who will win: Another Round - Thomas Vinterberg

Documentary (Feature)

Image courtesy of Amazon Studios

Nominees

  • Collective - Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
  • Crip Camp - Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
  • The Mole Agent - Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez
  • My Octopus Teacher - Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed, and Craig Foster
  • Time - Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino, and Kellen Quinn

Who should win: Collective - Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
Who will win: Time - Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino, and Kellen Quinn

Documentary (Short Subject)

Image courtesy of Netflix

Nominees

  • Collette - Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard
  • A Concerto Is a Conversation - Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
  • Do Not Split - Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook
  • Hunger Ward - Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman
  • A Love Song for Latasha - Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

Who should win: A Concerto Is a Conversation - Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
Who will win: A Love Song for Latasha - Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

Film Editing

Image courtesy of Searchlight Pictures

Nominees

  • The Father - Yorgos Lamprinos
  • Nomadland - Chloé Zhao
  • Promising Young Woman - Frédéric Thoraval
  • Sound of Metal - Mikkel E. G. Nielsen
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Alan Baumgarten

Who should win: The Father - Yorgos Lamprinos
Who will win: Nomadland - Chloé Zhao

International Feature Film

Image courtesy of Samuel Goldwyn Films

Nominees

  • Another Round - Denmark
  • Better Days - Hong Kong
  • Collective - Romania
  • The Man Who Sold His Skin - Tunisia
  • Quo Vadis, Aida? - Bosnia and Herzegovina

Who should win: Another Round - Denmark
Who will win: Another Round - Denmark

Makeup and Hairstyling

Photo credit: David Lee
Image courtesy of Netflix

Nominees

  • Emma. - Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze
  • Hillbilly Elegy - Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle, and Patricia Dehaney
  • Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, and Jamika Wilson
  • Mank - Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri, and Colleen LaBaff
  • Pinocchio - Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti

Who should win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, and Jamika Wilson
Who will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, and Jamika Wilson

Music (Original Score)

Image courtesy of Walt Disney Studios

Nominees

  • Da 5 Bloods - Terence Blanchard
  • Mank - Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
  • Minari - Emile Mosseri
  • News of the World - James Newton Howard
  • Soul - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

Who should win: Minari - Emile Mosseri
Who will win: Soul - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

Music (Original Song)

Image courtesy of Amazon Studios

Nominees

  • "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah; Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
  • "Hear My Voice" from The Trial of the Chicago 7; Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
  • "Húsavík" from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga; Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus, and Rickard Göransson
  • “Io Si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (Italian: La vita davanti a sé) ; Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
  • "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami...; Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

Who should win: "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami...; Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
Who will win: "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami...; Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

Best Picture

Image courtesy of Searchlight Pictures

Nominees

  • The Father - David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi, and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers
  • Judas and the Black Messiah - Shaka King, Charles D. King, and Ryan Coogler, Producers
  • Mank - Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, and Douglas Urbanski, Producers
  • Minari - Christina Oh, Producer
  • Nomadland - Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, and Chloé Zhao, Producers
  • Promising Young Woman - Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell, and Josey McNamara, Producers
  • Sound of Metal - Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers

Who should win: Promising Young Woman - Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell, and Josey McNamara, Producers
Who will win: Nomadland - Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, and Chloé Zhao, Producers

Production Design

Image courtesy of Netflix

Nominees

  • The Father - Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
  • Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara and Diana Stoughton
  • Mank - Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
  • News of the World - Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
  • Tenet - Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

Who should win: The Father - Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
Who will win: Mank - Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale

Short Film (Animated)

Image courtesy of Netflix

Nominees

  • Burrow - Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat
  • Genius Loci - Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise
  • If Anything Happens I Love You - Will McCormack and Michael Govier
  • Opera - Erick Oh
  • Yes-People - Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson

Who should win: If Anything Happens I Love You - Will McCormack and Michael Govier
Who will win: If Anything Happens I Love You - Will McCormack and Michael Govier

Short Film (Live Action)

Image courtesy of Topic

Nominees

  • Feeling Through - Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski
  • The Letter Room - Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
  • The Present - Farah Nabulsi and Ossama Bawardi
  • Two Distant Strangers - Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe
  • White Eye - Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman

Who should win: The Letter Room - Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
Who will win: The Letter Room - Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan

Sound

Image courtesy of Amazon Studios

Nominees

  • Greyhound - Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders, and David Wyman
  • Mank - Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance, and Drew Kunin
  • News of the World - Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller, and John Pritchett
  • Soul - Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott, and David Parker
  • Sound of Metal - Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michellee Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh

Who should win: Sound of Metal - Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michellee Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh
Who will win: Sound of Metal - Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michellee Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh

Visual Effects

Image courtesy of Warner Bros.

Nominees

  • Love and Monsters - Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt, and Brian Cox
  • The Midnight Sky - Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon, and David Watkins
  • Mulan - Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury, and Steve Ingram
  • The One and Only Ivan - Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones, and Santiago Colomo Martinez
  • Tenet - Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, and Scott Fisher

Who should win: Tenet - Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, and Scott Fisher
Who will win: Tenet - Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, and Scott Fisher

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Image courtesy of Searchlight Pictures

Nominees

  • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad
  • The Father - Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
  • Nomadland - Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao
  • One Night in Miami... - Screenplay by Kemp Powers
  • The White Tiger - Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani

Who should win: One Night in Miami… - Screenplay by Kemp Powers
Who will win: Nomadland - Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Imeage courtesy of Focus Features

Nominees

  • Judas and the Black Messiah - Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas
  • Minari - Written by Lee Isaac Chung
  • Promising Young Woman - Written by Emerald Fennell
  • Sound of Metal - Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Written by Aaron Sorkin

Who should win: Promising Young Woman - Written by Emerald Fennell
Who will win: Promising Young Woman - Written by Emerald Fennell

The 93rd Oscars air live on Sunday, April 25 at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on ABC. Until then, keep coming back to read reviews of the nominees and other Oscar coverage.

Thanks to Thomas Stoneham-Judge from Movies For Reel for supporting Austin B Media on Patreon!

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