93rd Oscars Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Should Win?
After an overextended awards season (lasting 145 days, to be exact!), there’s only one award show left, the 93rd Oscars. To celebrate the occasion, I would like to present my final predictions for the 93rd Oscars. In the subsequent article, I will go over what I think will win based on data from other awards shows this year, past Oscar wins, and also provide what I think should win, provided it’s not the film I predicted to win.
Actor in a leading role
Image courtesy of Netflix
Nominees
- Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
- Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- Anthony Hopkins, The Father
- Gary Oldman, Mank
- Steven Yeun, Minari
Who should win: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Who will win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Actor in a supporting role
Nominees
- Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
- Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
- Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
- Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Who should win: Daniel Kaluuya
Who will win: Paul Raci
Actress in a leading role
Nominees
- Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
- Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
- Frances McDormand, Nomadland
- Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Who should win: Carey Mulligan
Who will win: Carey Mulligan
Actress in a supporting role
Nominees
- Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
- Olivia Colman, The Father
- Amanda Seyfried, Mank
- Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Who should win: Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
Who will win: Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
Animated feature film
Nominees
- Onward, Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae
- Over the Moon, Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou
- A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Richard Phelan, Will Becher, and Paul Kewley
- Soul, Pete Docter and Dana Murray
- Wolfwalkers, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants
Who should win: Wolfwalkers - Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants
Who will win: Soul - Pete Docter and Dana Murray
Cinematography
Nominees
- Judas and the Black Messiah - Sean Bobbitt
- Mank - Erik Messerschmidt
- News of the World - Dariusz Wolski
- Nomadland - Joshua James Richards
- The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Phedon Papamichael
Who should win: Nomadland- Joshua James Richards
Who will win: Judas and the Black Messiah - Sean Bobbitt
Costume Design
Image courtesy of Netflix
Nominees
- Emma. - Alexandra Byrne
- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Ann Roth
- Mank - Trish Summerville
- Mulan - Bina Daigeler
- Pinocchio - Massimo Cantini Parrini
Who should win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Ann Roth
Who will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Ann Roth
Directing
Nominees
- Another Round - Thomas Vinterberg
- Mank - David Fincher
- Minari - Lee Isaac Chung
- Nomadland - Chloé Zhao
- Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell
Who should win: Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell
Who will win: Another Round - Thomas Vinterberg
Documentary (Feature)
Nominees
- Collective - Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
- Crip Camp - Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
- The Mole Agent - Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez
- My Octopus Teacher - Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed, and Craig Foster
- Time - Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino, and Kellen Quinn
Who should win: Collective - Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
Who will win: Time - Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino, and Kellen Quinn
Documentary (Short Subject)
Nominees
- Collette - Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard
- A Concerto Is a Conversation - Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
- Do Not Split - Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook
- Hunger Ward - Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman
- A Love Song for Latasha - Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan
Who should win: A Concerto Is a Conversation - Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
Who will win: A Love Song for Latasha - Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan
Film Editing
Nominees
- The Father - Yorgos Lamprinos
- Nomadland - Chloé Zhao
- Promising Young Woman - Frédéric Thoraval
- Sound of Metal - Mikkel E. G. Nielsen
- The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Alan Baumgarten
Who should win: The Father - Yorgos Lamprinos
Who will win: Nomadland - Chloé Zhao
International Feature Film
Nominees
- Another Round - Denmark
- Better Days - Hong Kong
- Collective - Romania
- The Man Who Sold His Skin - Tunisia
- Quo Vadis, Aida? - Bosnia and Herzegovina
Who should win: Another Round - Denmark
Who will win: Another Round - Denmark
Makeup and Hairstyling
Image courtesy of Netflix
Nominees
- Emma. - Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze
- Hillbilly Elegy - Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle, and Patricia Dehaney
- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, and Jamika Wilson
- Mank - Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri, and Colleen LaBaff
- Pinocchio - Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti
Who should win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, and Jamika Wilson
Who will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, and Jamika Wilson
Music (Original Score)
Nominees
- Da 5 Bloods - Terence Blanchard
- Mank - Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
- Minari - Emile Mosseri
- News of the World - James Newton Howard
- Soul - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste
Who should win: Minari - Emile Mosseri
Who will win: Soul - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste
Music (Original Song)
Nominees
- "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah; Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
- "Hear My Voice" from The Trial of the Chicago 7; Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
- "Húsavík" from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga; Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus, and Rickard Göransson
- “Io Si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (Italian: La vita davanti a sé) ; Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
- "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami...; Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
Who should win: "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami...; Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
Who will win: "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami...; Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
Best Picture
Nominees
- The Father - David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi, and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers
- Judas and the Black Messiah - Shaka King, Charles D. King, and Ryan Coogler, Producers
- Mank - Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, and Douglas Urbanski, Producers
- Minari - Christina Oh, Producer
- Nomadland - Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, and Chloé Zhao, Producers
- Promising Young Woman - Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell, and Josey McNamara, Producers
- Sound of Metal - Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers
- The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers
Who should win: Promising Young Woman - Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell, and Josey McNamara, Producers
Who will win: Nomadland - Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, and Chloé Zhao, Producers
Production Design
Nominees
- The Father - Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara and Diana Stoughton
- Mank - Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
- News of the World - Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
- Tenet - Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas
Who should win: The Father - Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
Who will win: Mank - Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
Short Film (Animated)
Nominees
- Burrow - Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat
- Genius Loci - Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise
- If Anything Happens I Love You - Will McCormack and Michael Govier
- Opera - Erick Oh
- Yes-People - Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson
Who should win: If Anything Happens I Love You - Will McCormack and Michael Govier
Who will win: If Anything Happens I Love You - Will McCormack and Michael Govier
Short Film (Live Action)
Nominees
- Feeling Through - Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski
- The Letter Room - Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
- The Present - Farah Nabulsi and Ossama Bawardi
- Two Distant Strangers - Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe
- White Eye - Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman
Who should win: The Letter Room - Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
Who will win: The Letter Room - Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
Sound
Nominees
- Greyhound - Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders, and David Wyman
- Mank - Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance, and Drew Kunin
- News of the World - Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller, and John Pritchett
- Soul - Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott, and David Parker
- Sound of Metal - Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michellee Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh
Who should win: Sound of Metal - Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michellee Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh
Who will win: Sound of Metal - Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michellee Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh
Visual Effects
Nominees
- Love and Monsters - Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt, and Brian Cox
- The Midnight Sky - Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon, and David Watkins
- Mulan - Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury, and Steve Ingram
- The One and Only Ivan - Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones, and Santiago Colomo Martinez
- Tenet - Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, and Scott Fisher
Who should win: Tenet - Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, and Scott Fisher
Who will win: Tenet - Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, and Scott Fisher
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Nominees
- Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad
- The Father - Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
- Nomadland - Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao
- One Night in Miami... - Screenplay by Kemp Powers
- The White Tiger - Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani
Who should win: One Night in Miami… - Screenplay by Kemp Powers
Who will win: Nomadland - Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominees
- Judas and the Black Messiah - Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas
- Minari - Written by Lee Isaac Chung
- Promising Young Woman - Written by Emerald Fennell
- Sound of Metal - Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance
- The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Written by Aaron Sorkin
Who should win: Promising Young Woman - Written by Emerald Fennell
Who will win: Promising Young Woman - Written by Emerald Fennell
The 93rd Oscars air live on Sunday, April 25 at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on ABC. Until then, keep coming back to read reviews of the nominees and other Oscar coverage.
Thanks to Thomas Stoneham-Judge from Movies For Reel for supporting Austin B Media on Patreon!
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